Businessman Rommel Ynion has never ran for a political post in his life. But if elections were done today, he has a major chance of beating the incumbent mayor of Iloilo City.

This was the findings of the University of the Philippines Visayas (UPV) College of Management in a recent a survey done among Iloilo residents which showed incumbent Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog's popularity declining by as much as 27 percent.

UPV Professor Joseph Loot and his students interviewed the respondents and asked them who they think is capable of  leading Iloilo City as its mayor or chief executive. The number one choice was incumbent mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog, but his popularity has gone down by 27 percent from what he got last year.

The  biggest  surprise of  all, however, is that Ynion came in a statistical tie for second place with former mayor, now Rep. Jerry Treñas, former Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez Sr., and former Undersecretary Larry Jamora.

Ynion actually ranked fifth based on the actual number of choices he received in the survey. But Prof. Loot, a noted pollster, pointed out that when the plus and minus 3 margin of error is applied, Ynion could easily be in second spot behind Mabilog.

Loot  said  the survey was actually a “political awareness” poll conducted in 60 randomly selected barangays during the period June 25 and 26, 2011. The survey was designed to determine the “awareness of voters in Iloilo City of selected political issues” using the “recall method” which means that the respondents were not prompted with any choices but were asked to provide answers based on their prevailing personal sentiment or state of mind at the time of the survey.

Ironically, Ynion was the only non-politician among those picked by the respondents in the political awareness poll.

The said survey showed that Mabilog got the nod of 40 percent of the respondents. The undecided was at a sizeable 21.9 percent while the choices for second to fifth place ranged from 9 to 5 percentage points. Aside from those above, the respondents gave out at least 20 other names as their choice for mayor.

Prof.  Loot, who has conducted pre-election polls for several candidates in the run up to the May 2010 elections, expressed surprise at the dip in Mabilog’s numbers. Last year, Mabilog scored as much as 67 percent in various polls, he said. He had lost 27 points in the span of one year.

He  did  not offer any explanation over the drastic drop in Mabilog’s rating but observers say this could be due to a growing dissatisfaction at Mabilog’s style of  governance.  Notably, one poll respondent said, “Si Mabilog puro lang proposed project wala man ginapakadtuan.” Roughly translated the respondent opined that Mabilog has a lot of proposed projects but has delivered nothing.

After serving a full year in office, Mabilog’s administration has largely earned media criticism for indecisiveness and, lately, tales of abuse if not corruption in the use of public funds. The same survey showed that 65.7 percent of the respondents are aware of the issue raised against an overpriced city hall and that 73.8 percent approve of the exposé.

As the Commission on Audit continues to come up with sordid tales of the city government’s infidelity or mishandling of the people’s money, it is expected that Mabilog’s approval and satisfaction ratings will continue to plummet.

Surprisingly, Ynion, who initiated the campaign, got acknowledgment on this issue from only 8 percent of the respondents. 74.3 percent of the respondents had no idea who started the campaign against corruption at city hall.

The survey results showed that  Ynion’s recognition factor stemmed largely from his philanthropic work. About four months ago, Ynion began distributing free rice and bread to the destitute residents of Iloilo City through the Ang Ynion Abyan Foundation. Survey showed  that  50.6  percent  showed an awareness of the program with 85 percent of  those polled giving their approval to the program.

Mathematically,  Mabilog’s 40 percent poll is already vulnerable at this point in time with 60 percent of the votes ripe for the picking. Observers say, Ynion’s poll numbers, surprising for a relatively unknown non-politician with no announced political plan, puts him in a good position to run for elective position two years from now.*