It's a year and a month before the midterm elections of 2013 and the thoughts of politicians, quite naturally, start focusing on running for office. Make no mistake: the election season – which in this country is the only public celebration that lasts longer than our world-beating, overly-extended Christmas holidays – is already upon us.

This early, the much-ballyhooed coalition between the forces of Vice President Jejomar Binay and former President Joseph Estrada is hogging the headlines because of its potential for being the political gold standard for 2013. Spokesmen for Binay have declared that the senatorial slate of the new United Nationalist Alliance, or Una, is already filled to overflowing with candidates who look to be winners.

And it does look like Una's 12-man Senate lineup, which is loaded with familiar names, is going to be the team to beat in the midterm elections. According to Binay himself, the new coalition intends to win resoundingly in 2013 to prepare for the 2016 presidential polls, during which the Veep will obviously be vying for the post of Big Kahuna by the Pasig River.

Una's Senate slate will be bannered by re-electionist Francis "Chiz" Escudero. Erstwhile bitter rivals Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel and Juan Mguel Zubiri, second term-seekers Alan Peter Cayetano, Gregorio Honasan, Loren Legarda, San Juan Rep. Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito, Cagayan Rep. Jack Enrile, former Las Pinas Rep. Cynthia Villar, Zambales Rep. Mitos Magsaysay, 2010 Senate also-ran Jose de Venecia III and comebacking former Senator Ernesto Maceda are supposed to complete the powerful Binay-Estrada lineup.

Except for Escudero, a known close personal friend of President Noynoy Aquino, and late-blooming administration defender Cayetano, none of these purported candidates are associated with the current occupant of Malacanang Palace. Joey Salgado, Binay's spokesman, has also said that the new coalition is also not entering into an alliance with the all-but-dead Lakas-Kampi party of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

The message that Una is obviously trying to send is that while its Senate slate is definitely not palace-oriented and independent of Aquino's Liberal Party, it is certainly not going to be Team Arroyo, either. And because this is really Team Binay, the Una lineup will attempt to avoid the Scylla and Charybdis of either camp on its way to victory in the next two polls.

Given that every politician who wants to become a senator next year is probably desperately seeking a slot in the Binay-Estrada slate, that lineup could still possibly change by May next year, if not by much. What's clear, though, is that this is the team to watch next year – and the slate that will probably get the biggest support from the nimble local officials and congressmen whose political fortunes hinge on backing the right horse.

Any changes in the Una lineup will probably involve the entry of three names: Bacoor, Cavite Mayor Lani Mercado Revilla, Binay's daughter Nancy and (drum roll, please) Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro.

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As for the Liberal Party's own Senate lineup for 2013, there's not much to say about it, at this point. Indeed, if the limp statements emanating from Malacanang in reaction to the creation of the powerhouse Una lineup are any indication, it appears that Aquino is hard-pressed to even come up with a complete slate that will not include many candidates whose chances are, as they say, slim to none.

It's not as if Malacanang has not been doing its best to cobble together a decent Senate team. It's just that nobody who feels they have the potential to win is ready to be included in the LP slate – and those who don't like their chances don't want to be burdened with the label of being the palace's choice.

At this point, only Justice Secretary Leila de Lima and still-seeking-a-position Rissa Hontiveros seem to be sure of slots in the LP Senate ticket. And it's highly doubtful if either of these women will enter the "Magic 12."

Other wannabe LP senators like Customs Commissioner Rufi Biazon and his deputy, former Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim may be included in the final LP lineup, but they have even less chances of winning that those two women. As for the other palace allies who had wanted to join the supposedly strong administration ticket through their association with the prosecution in the Corona impeachment trial, they've now practically given up the ghost, as well; you will not be seeing the name "Niel Tupas Jr." on the Senate ballot next May – unless Tupas goes crazy and runs anyway.

This, despite the tireless efforts of Transportation Secretary Mar Roxas and Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo to recruit potential LP senators all over the country, using a private plane loaned by a businessman in the mining game. Roxas himself is wisely not running in the next elections and Robredo is in the same boat as the other "unwinnables" associated with Aquino – including his spokesmen and some friendly media personalities.

Yes, it's that bad. And it probably is going to get a lot worse for the LP Senate ticket in the days to come, if the situation changes at all.*