The United States has announced that it will remain neutral in the renewed escalation of tensions between China and the Philippines over disputed territories in the South China Sea. And no one, save for the Aquino administration and the Filipinos who still believe that Washington will go to war with China for us, is surprised.
What is clear is that we have been victimized by diplomatic noynoying, a particularly virulent variety of official incompetence that makes enemies for us where there were none before and encourages us to pin our hopes on partners who will not come to our aid when we need them most. Nowhere is the fallout of this pernicious practice more evident than in our current relationships with both China and the US.
The US' refusal to be drawn into a conflict with China over the Scarborough Shoal dispute is an outrage to Filipinos who like to believe that good old Uncle Sam will (and must) rush to our aid because of the Mutual Defense Treaty. But the sad fact is, right now, the fate of a blind lawyer in the American Embassy in Beijing is more important to the leaders in both superpowers than the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines.
Sure, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta met with their Filipino counterparts this week in Washington. There, the Filipino officials made a clear pitch for US support against the Chinese, including beggarly entreaties for more military hardware to enable Manila to maintain a "minimum" defensive capability.
But Hillary's mind – and that of her boss, Barack Obama – was probably already flying off to Beijing. Clinton arrived in the Chinese capital for the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the two powers and she definitely did not pack the problems of the Philippines in her suitcases.
As the New York Times reported on the eve of Clinton's visit, officials in both countries are more concerned with what to do with a blind dissident, Chen Guangcheng, who dramatically escaped house arrest last week and fled to the American Embassy. "China and the United States both appear to be under enormous pressure to find a resolution [to the Chen situation] that does not overshadow the talks, known as the Strategic Economic Dialogue, or derail the broader relationship," NYT said.
So fearful are American officials of how the Chinese would react to calls to free Chen that Obama would not even mention the dissident's name, even if he did gently urge Beijing to respect the rights of its citizens because "that not only is that the right thing to do, [it also] it comports with our belief in freedom and human rights." However, according to Obama, the bottom line is "we want China to be strong, and we want it to be prosperous."
Those certainly aren't the words that Manila wants to hear from the Great Black Leader in Washington. But what Filipinos fail to realize is that the Philippines is no longer in the radar of Obama or Clinton because the Scarborough business is only going to rile the Chinese even more than they already are over a blind anti-abortion activist.
Even Obama's softball pitch for human rights has been interpreted as a limp-wristed gesture to American voters who may think that the US President has gone easy on China just months before he seeks reelection to a second term. "[The Obama] administration has made a calculated decision not to challenge the Chinese regime on its dismal human-rights record [on an election year]," House committee on foreign affairs chairman Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida said.
And all-important US-China economic cooperation aside, Washington feels that Beijing is now a vital factor in regional security, as well. As the Times noted, "the United States is now far more reluctant to alienate a rising economic powerhouse whose diplomatic heft makes its cooperation crucial on many security matters, including North Korea and Iran."
And the weeks-long standoff west of Manila over territories being grabbed by the Chinese from the Philippines? No one even mentions it in Washington.
It's hard to accept that a blind Chinese dissident rates higher than a longtime ally and former colony in the American scheme of things. But that's just something we have to live with, now that we have become an economic pygmy with little strategic importance to the US since we kicked out the Americans from bases in Clark and Subic.
Face it: the Philippines hasn't been important to the US in a long time. China, on the other hand, is probably the US' most important creditor, trade partner and competitor for global dominance.
* * *
Meanwhile, ever since the Chinese lost all respect for the administration of President Noynoy Aquino over the bungling of the Rizal hostage crisis two years ago, Manila has struggled to find any negotiating leverage with Beijing. And Aquino's slavish (and ultimately self-defeating) attempts to curry favor with the Americans, supposedly as a counter-balance to Chinese influence, have only made improving ties with Beijing less likely.
(The Philippines' failure to name a regular ambassador to Beijing may not be an attempt by Manila to engage in diplomatic brinkmanship with the Chinese. Unfortunately for us, China seems to think so.)
Meanwhile, our neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations still play deaf to Manila's requests to join us in protesting Chinese incursions. And now that Washington has basically told Filipinos to paddle their own canoe, as well, we are left with no one to turn to.
It's something to think about, whenever we hear Malacanang acting like it wants to go to war with China because the Americans have got our back, as they say. And the laughter we hear comes from across the sea, to the northeast.*
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